It’s this simple: When the October-in-September Surprise is large-scale and economic, the Democrat wins. (Helped, of course, if the Republican is especially clueless economically. This year, it's the economy, and the stupid.) And all things being approximately equal, when the Surprise is about national security, the Republican wins.
The polls are already on the move. What looked like a probable McCain win a week ago now bids fair to be a rout in the other direction.
So, I’m sitting shiva for the dream of President Hillary Clinton. This is such a painfully missed opportunity, it actually hurts. I continue to believe that Obama will be a failure – but he’ll be renominated in 2012, nonetheless. (After all, Carter was.) And the GOP is such a basket case that he may even be re-elected. (After all, W was.)
On the other hand, on a symbolic and historical level, it is impossible not to be moved by the prospect of an African American President of the
Where's Keats when you need him? We could all use some of that "negative capability."