The tipping (over the cliff) point?

Was this the beginning of the end? It certainly feels more like that than the end of the beginning.

With the debacle in Massachusetts, we may be hearing the bell tolling for the Obama edition of American Idol. It’s a bit early to know, of course… but on my Magic 8 Ball, it says, “Signs point to yes.”

As I speculated in my previous post, the time will (in all likelihood) arrive when a consensus crystallizes that this Administration is Jimmy Carter II. That moment might be right now. Certainly, the hamina-hamina-kumbayamina response from the White House does nothing to staunch that perception.

Whether it’s now or in November, once this consensus forms, it’s game over, politically speaking. When it becomes generally understood that a person in charge can be rolled, everybody starts acting on the basis of that understanding, and the natural forces of vacuum-abhorrence take over. Departmental satraps strut a bit more confidently. External competitors and allies alike make plans with a weak actor in mind. Everywhere, small-ball power games get ramped up. The center does not hold. Mere anarchy may not yet be loosed… but at best, stasis reigns supreme.

As to the personal narratives here, the whole thing has a kind of Mobius-strip-like quality, folding back on itself.

Ted Kennedy's long-ago fatal sexual flaws mean he doesn't defeat Jimmy Carter for the nomination…

So that Jimmy Carter's leadership flaws mean that we get Ronald Reagan…

So that Ronald Reagan's political luck can land him in office at the moment the Soviet Union is collapsing under the weight of its own internal contradictions…

So that the end of the Cold War (and related rise of globalization) can unleash a new political alignment…

So that Bill Clinton can emerge to grab one part of that new alignment – and do the best that can be done, still inside the rightward pendulum swing…

So that his sexual flaws can then derail the end of his presidency... and cloud Al Gore's vision...

So that Gore's political limitations (and a criminal Supreme Court) can allow W to "win"…

So that W and Cheney can unleash the Right’s fondest fantasies...

So that those fantasies can crash and burn -- not only much of our government and society, but the GOP as a national party...

Meanwhile, back to Ted Kennedy…

Whose jealousy and unresolved regrets about his own truncated ambitions lead him to turn on the Clintons...

So that Obama gets crucial help in gaming the nomination…

So that, when Teddy dies, Obama's limits as a leader result in the loss of Teddy's empty seat to a W clone...

So that the chances for Teddy's lifelong political goal may once again fail to materialize.

“Where have all the flowers gone? Picked by young girls every one..."