But this is certainly heartening.
Update: Breathing a bit easier now. She jumped 10 points in 538's polls-only forecast in one day -- and now leads the asshole by more than 20 points. Obviously, it's too early to count chickens, but this is excellent news.
Update 2: The hits just keep on coming. Now the likelihood is up to 66% for 538, and 74% for the Times.
Update 3: As of noon on Aug. 4, 78% and 77%, respectively.
Update 4: Outlier? Or harbinger?
Update 5: I guess this post has become a running tally of the state of the race. Hence, this today.
Update 6: The state of the race on Aug. 7.
Update 7: She keeps rising -- 86.6% likelihood on Aug. 8.
Update 8: Later on the same day, 87.5%
Update 9: It's moved up and down a couple of points over the past few days, seemingly dependent on how the model rates Arizona and Georgia. This morning, Aug. 12, it's 87.3.
btw, that's the polls-only forecast. The polls-plus forecast is 77.1, and the now-cast is 88.9.
Update 10: Sweet dreams.
Update 11: The state of play as of Aug. 16. Steady as she goes.
Update 12: Aug. 18. She seems to have plateaued, for now. In a good place.
Update 13: Aug. 22. The state of play.
Update 14: Aug. 25. Moving in the wrong direction, but only marginally so.
Update 15: Aug. 26. Fishing for more appealing predictions.
Update 16: Aug. 31. This post is buried by now, but I might as well keep it going -- this time with analysis, not just numbers.
Update 17: Worrisome.
Update 18: There's this, but then there's this and this. So... very worried -- or not?
Update 19: Sept. 8. Is the worm unturning?
Update 20: Sept. 14. Serious panic.