Lots of commentators -- from David Brooks to Chris Matthews to countless minor bloviators across the landscape -- are framing Hillary's theory of the case as her competence, which they cast unfavorably to Bernie's purist ideology and Trump's purist machismo. They say her argument is boring, content-free, out of touch with the people's hunger for a mission (or at least a professional wrestler to root for).
They're wrong. Hillary's campaign is not and will not be about competence. It will be about strength. She won't run for president as the best manager, she'll run as Wonder Woman, as the Iron Lady.
That will take different coloration depending on her opponent.
If it's Cruz, she will present herself as the people's staunch defender against the extremist Republican Congress. Cruz has fought hard for -- and won -- the role of Speaker of the House in Exile (exiled in the Senate). He has embraced the Tea Party's Know-Nothing rejection of governance and opposition to anything for Those People. Empowering the nut-job choir is very scary. Her campaign theme writes itself.
If it's Rubio, the argument will be roughly the same, but she'll paint Rubio not as the enthusiastic leader of the living dead, but as their malleable thrall. A little more work will be required, but not a whole lot. And Rubio's pathetic embrace of macho rhetoric offers a glass jaw for a true puncher to break. Along with the highest and hardest glass ceiling, she'll shatter it into a thousand pieces.
And if, as seems very likely, it's Trump, the contrast of faux macho strength and deep real strength will be great theater. Nothing is as delightful as seeing a bully humbled. Nothing would fire up the women of America so much as the prospect of kicking the asshole laureate in the nuts.
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Monday, February 22, 2016
Human behavior 101 - Updated
This is correct. It's what I've been saying: The Dems are the conservatives -- in a dictionary sense of the word -- and the GOP are the radicals. And loss aversion is much stronger than risk-attraction.
This is also why she will win overwhelmingly in the general election. The primary season -- more so this cycle than at any time since '72 -- is the season of embracing one's id, of letting loose with a good "Who needs this shit?" In this Act One, the folks onstage who dominate the action are the ones saying, "Blow this theater up!" (in both the emotional tone and the metatheatrical critique; they're breaking the fourth wall of American politics, loudly).
But in Act Two, the play changes, and the one who says, "Let's have a satisfying denouement and get home safe" is the one who takes over. Remember Goldwater. Remember McGovern.
There's a lot of commentary abroad about how we can't possibly predict what will happen because none of the old rules apply. The window is wide open, conventional wisdom is out of it, and who knows what will blow in? But that's nonsense. A kiss is still a kiss. We're forgetting that primaries aren't general elections. We're forgetting that America isn't yet in bad enough shape to elect a Le Pen or a Franco. We're paying too much attention to the id and not enough to the superego.
Hillary's argument -- her conservative, winning argument -- will be: "I'm a serious fighter and I will give those reactionary Republicans who are trying to take away your healthcare and your right to choose and your Social Security a clop upside the head they'll never forget." She'll say, "They're the ones who are making government crappy, because their goal is to drown it in a bathtub. I will make sure, first, that government works again, and second, that it works for you." The subtext of all this (actually not so sub) will be, "I will stand up to Putin and ISIS and China much more than this needledick blowhard (or this schoolboy with contact lenses...or this insect in a suit -- depending)." She'll be a tough protector of our rights and of our country. Her campaign will scare the shit out of the public at the prospect of either Trump or Cruz or Rubio with his finger on the button and his thumb on the scales and his temperament and immaturity in the driver's seat.
It won't be close.
Update: Also, this is about the two parties, and about America. The Republican Party has gone off the deep end, and the Democrats haven't. The Republican Party is about to nominate Claribelle the Clown for president, and the Democrats are rejecting Mr. Greenjeans. The GOP may have lost its mind, but America has not.
This is also why she will win overwhelmingly in the general election. The primary season -- more so this cycle than at any time since '72 -- is the season of embracing one's id, of letting loose with a good "Who needs this shit?" In this Act One, the folks onstage who dominate the action are the ones saying, "Blow this theater up!" (in both the emotional tone and the metatheatrical critique; they're breaking the fourth wall of American politics, loudly).
But in Act Two, the play changes, and the one who says, "Let's have a satisfying denouement and get home safe" is the one who takes over. Remember Goldwater. Remember McGovern.
There's a lot of commentary abroad about how we can't possibly predict what will happen because none of the old rules apply. The window is wide open, conventional wisdom is out of it, and who knows what will blow in? But that's nonsense. A kiss is still a kiss. We're forgetting that primaries aren't general elections. We're forgetting that America isn't yet in bad enough shape to elect a Le Pen or a Franco. We're paying too much attention to the id and not enough to the superego.
Hillary's argument -- her conservative, winning argument -- will be: "I'm a serious fighter and I will give those reactionary Republicans who are trying to take away your healthcare and your right to choose and your Social Security a clop upside the head they'll never forget." She'll say, "They're the ones who are making government crappy, because their goal is to drown it in a bathtub. I will make sure, first, that government works again, and second, that it works for you." The subtext of all this (actually not so sub) will be, "I will stand up to Putin and ISIS and China much more than this needledick blowhard (or this schoolboy with contact lenses...or this insect in a suit -- depending)." She'll be a tough protector of our rights and of our country. Her campaign will scare the shit out of the public at the prospect of either Trump or Cruz or Rubio with his finger on the button and his thumb on the scales and his temperament and immaturity in the driver's seat.
It won't be close.
Update: Also, this is about the two parties, and about America. The Republican Party has gone off the deep end, and the Democrats haven't. The Republican Party is about to nominate Claribelle the Clown for president, and the Democrats are rejecting Mr. Greenjeans. The GOP may have lost its mind, but America has not.
Saturday, February 20, 2016
The beginning of the end...
... not just the end of the beginning. Pretty soon the headline will be Berned Out.
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Cast a cold eye on life, on dreck...
... and let the horseshit pass by (h/t Mr. Yeats).
Gene Lyons reminds us what we're dealing with when the press covers the Clintons. Same goes for the slime making its way around the social intertubes that Hillary is no feminist because she brutally silenced Bill's female victims. The Dowd, of course, is entirely in thrall to this stuff -- and so, again, are some lefty bloggers and posters.
So just remember, it's a crock. The accusers were not credible, not even remotely so. Hillary didn't slime Connie Hamzy and Gennifer Flowers. They were bathing in it. She did not call all single mothers "deadbeats." She did not say that black youths were "super-predators": she said that super-predators existed. And Whitewater. And Vince Foster. And "Travelgate." And Benghazi.
Has she made mistakes? Of course. Has she changed her mind? Yes, and good for her. Has she devoted her adult life to pushing progressive causes? Well, those infected with CDS lose interest there -- unless they happen to be wingnuts, in which case she's the communist lesbian thieving lying vagina dentata bitch from hell.
Gene Lyons reminds us what we're dealing with when the press covers the Clintons. Same goes for the slime making its way around the social intertubes that Hillary is no feminist because she brutally silenced Bill's female victims. The Dowd, of course, is entirely in thrall to this stuff -- and so, again, are some lefty bloggers and posters.
So just remember, it's a crock. The accusers were not credible, not even remotely so. Hillary didn't slime Connie Hamzy and Gennifer Flowers. They were bathing in it. She did not call all single mothers "deadbeats." She did not say that black youths were "super-predators": she said that super-predators existed. And Whitewater. And Vince Foster. And "Travelgate." And Benghazi.
Has she made mistakes? Of course. Has she changed her mind? Yes, and good for her. Has she devoted her adult life to pushing progressive causes? Well, those infected with CDS lose interest there -- unless they happen to be wingnuts, in which case she's the communist lesbian thieving lying vagina dentata bitch from hell.
More on puppy-icorns
The reality-based community is speaking out against... Bernie.
This is important. As Krugman says, supporting Hillary is not ipso facto proof of shill-dom.
Having said that, the real issue here is how to handle the emotional letdown of his loss. The Obama campaign in '08 did a godawful job of that. I hope -- and believe -- that Hillary, with far more emotional intelligence, will begin the outreach and inclusion process after Super Tuesday. And the Supreme Court pendancy will help a lot. By November, there really need not be an "enthusiasm gap" in favor of the wingnut base.
This is important. As Krugman says, supporting Hillary is not ipso facto proof of shill-dom.
Having said that, the real issue here is how to handle the emotional letdown of his loss. The Obama campaign in '08 did a godawful job of that. I hope -- and believe -- that Hillary, with far more emotional intelligence, will begin the outreach and inclusion process after Super Tuesday. And the Supreme Court pendancy will help a lot. By November, there really need not be an "enthusiasm gap" in favor of the wingnut base.
Monday, February 15, 2016
Not so far offshore
Kevin Drum supplies some reality-based context on the energy behind Trump's campaign --but it also applies to Bernie's. And remember -- this is from Mother Jones, not the Chamber of Commerce.
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