Monday, February 22, 2016

Human behavior 101 - Updated

This is correct. It's what I've been saying: The Dems are the conservatives -- in a dictionary sense of the word -- and the GOP are the radicals. And loss aversion is much stronger than risk-attraction.

This is also why she will win overwhelmingly in the general election. The primary season -- more so this cycle than at any time since '72 -- is the season of embracing one's id, of letting loose with a good "Who needs this shit?" In this Act One, the folks onstage who dominate the action are the ones saying, "Blow this theater up!" (in both the emotional tone and the metatheatrical critique; they're breaking the fourth wall of American politics, loudly).

But in Act Two, the play changes, and the one who says, "Let's have a satisfying denouement and get home safe" is the one who takes over. Remember Goldwater. Remember McGovern.

There's a lot of commentary abroad about how we can't possibly predict what will happen because none of the old rules apply. The window is wide open, conventional wisdom is out of it, and who knows what will blow in? But that's nonsense. A kiss is still a kiss. We're forgetting that primaries aren't general elections. We're forgetting that America isn't yet in bad enough shape to elect a Le Pen or a Franco. We're paying too much attention to the id and not enough to the superego.

Hillary's argument -- her conservative, winning argument -- will be: "I'm a serious fighter and I will give those reactionary Republicans who are trying to take away your healthcare and your right to choose and your Social Security a clop upside the head they'll never forget." She'll say, "They're the ones who are making government crappy, because their goal is to drown it in a bathtub. I will make sure, first, that government works again, and second, that it works for you." The subtext of all this (actually not so sub) will be, "I will stand up to Putin and ISIS and China much more than this needledick blowhard (or this schoolboy with contact lenses...or this insect in a suit -- depending)." She'll be a tough protector of our rights and of our country. Her campaign will scare the shit out of the public at the prospect of either Trump or Cruz or Rubio with his finger on the button and his thumb on the scales and his temperament and immaturity in the driver's seat.

It won't be close.

Update: Also, this is about the two parties, and about America. The Republican Party has gone off the deep end, and the Democrats haven't. The Republican Party is about to nominate Claribelle the Clown for president, and the Democrats are rejecting Mr. Greenjeans. The GOP may have lost its mind, but America has not.

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