Thursday, May 26, 2016

More data

Those Democrats who still live in the fact-based world -- i.e., not Berners -- have the benefit of understanding what is actually happening, as opposed to what they want to happen. Nate Silver & co. are among those reality types -- with the latest being this useful analysis.

The money line: “If all states held primaries open to independents — instead of closed primaries, or caucuses of any kind — Clinton might have a larger lead in elected delegates than she does now. The model indicates that Clinton would have a lead of 294 elected delegates, compared with the 272 she holds now. That’s not a huge difference, but it means that Clinton has been hurt at least as much by caucuses as Sanders has been hurt by closed primaries.

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