Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Since the Presidential race is now decided... - updated

Yes, I know. I'm giving it a kinehora -- and on Rosh Hashana, yet. So be it. Mitt was already a goner before Moochergate, and now he is unelectable. He has already written the scripts of the debates, and they were his one remaining predictable chance to change the trajectory. Now he's down to hoping for dei ex machina. And since the dysfunction of his campaign has itself become a robust meme, there is now the likelihood of an exponential shift: the meta taking each actual gaffe and lost opportunity to the next power, and so on. Stick a fork in it -- this one is done.

Which means that the Democratic Party, if it has a whit of sechel, should right now be redirecting resources into Senate and House races. As Nate Silver points out, the momentum in the Senate is already favorable to the Dems. It should not be allowed to backslide for lack of money. As for the House, I suspect retaking it is beyond the pale, but a large infusion of advertising across the country could perhaps win back 15-20 seats. I mean ads that do double duty nationally and locally: Show the increasingly toxic Romney and Ryan next to Candidate X, with the headline, "They want to take away your Medicare and give you Vouchercare." For good measure, include a clip from Romney's 47 Percent Dis-solution video.

L'shana tova.

Update: It would be nothing short of astonishing if this election turned into a Dem wave -- after Obama's failures on the economy, after the GOP wave in 2010. And yet, some signs are pointing that way. Witness Nate Silver's latest on the Senate. Money quote -- which would have seemed insane even a week ago:
...if the trend continues, the question may no longer be whether Republicans can win the Senate — but how vulnerable they are to losing the House.
Update 2: More grist. Maybe there's something in the methodology gap between cell-phone-and-live-interview polls and the others that doesn't just favor Dems, but also provides earlier indications of trajectory?

Update 3: Rats, ships, and all that.

Update 4: And the cupboard was bare.

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