Monday, August 1, 2016

Still holding my breath - updated

But this is certainly heartening.

Update: Breathing a bit easier now. She jumped 10 points in 538's polls-only forecast in one day -- and now leads the asshole by more than 20 points. Obviously, it's too early to count chickens, but this is excellent news.

Update 2: The hits just keep on coming. Now the likelihood is up to 66% for 538, and 74% for the Times.

Update 3: As of noon on Aug. 4, 78% and 77%, respectively.

Update 4: Outlier? Or harbinger?

Update 5: I guess this post has become a running tally of the state of the race. Hence, this today.

Update 6: The state of the race on Aug. 7.

Update 7: She keeps rising -- 86.6% likelihood on Aug. 8.

Update 8: Later on the same day, 87.5%

Update 9: It's moved up and down a couple of points over the past few days, seemingly dependent on how the model rates Arizona and Georgia. This morning, Aug. 12, it's 87.3.

btw, that's the polls-only forecast. The polls-plus forecast is 77.1, and the now-cast is 88.9.

Update 10: Sweet dreams.

Update 11: The state of play as of Aug. 16. Steady as she goes.

Update 12: Aug. 18. She seems to have plateaued, for now. In a good place.

Update 13: Aug. 22. The state of play.

Update 14: Aug. 25. Moving in the wrong direction, but only marginally so.

Update 15: Aug. 26. Fishing for more appealing predictions.

Update 16: Aug. 31. This post is buried by now, but I might as well keep it going -- this time with analysis, not just numbers.

Update 17: Worrisome.

Update 18: There's this, but then there's this and this. So... very worried -- or not?

Update 19: Sept. 8. Is the worm unturning?

Update 20: Sept. 14. Serious panic.

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